Banorte analysts predict a difficult first half of the year for investment due to Donald Trump’s tariff threats
After the application of tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobile exports, it seems inevitable that Mexico will not be spared from Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.
Although Mexico does not apply any tariffs to U.S. products, Trump’s advisors are reviewing other barriers, which has created a complicated environment for investment, simply making any kind of planning for companies is impossible at this juncture.
Hence, Banorte, which has Carlos Hank González, sees a weak first half of the year for investment, both public and private.
Banorte says that government physical investment will be focused and will be lower than last year due to fiscal consolidation, and as already approved in the 2025 Expenditure Budget, the government’s investment plan in public works and other investment projects represents 0.5% of GDP ($189 billion).
According to Banorte, investment projects and agreements have continued to be disclosed in 2025, and a total of some of the key private sector announcements has now exceeded US$17 billion.
