Government cuts GDP forecast for 2025; Trump among the causes
Claudia Sheinbaum’s government decreased its economic growth prediction for this year to a range of 1.5% to 2.3%, down from 2% to 3% previously.
The Treasury’s General Economic Policy Precriteria 2026 reveal that the estimate has been revised downward in response to a decrease in residential investment, a smaller expansion in oil mining, and the long-term consequences of supply shocks beginning in 2024.
The agency also stated that the uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s trade policies and the changes in the US relationship with its partners have resulted in a major increase in caution in private investment and consumption, reducing its dynamism in the short term.
The administration also cut its GDP growth prediction for 2026 from 2% to 3% to 1.5 to 2.5%.
The new official growth estimate for this year is still too optimistic compared to private sector forecasts.
Just this Tuesday, Banxico published the results of its most recent monthly survey on economic expectations. The consensus of the 42 analysis groups consulted by the central bank reduced its economic growth forecast for the country for 2025 from 0.8% to 0.5%, while for 2026 the expectation dropped from 1.7% to 1.6%.
