Alert issued that a merger between Volaris and Viva Aerobus might lead to increased fares
The document mentions that Volaris previously indicated a roughly 25% year-over-year rise in its ticket prices, especially for international flights.
The possible merger of Volaris and Viva Aerobus might result in increased ticket prices for travelers, because of the market concentration this deal would establish and the subsequent decrease in competition among budget airlines. Cautioned the consulting company Antitrust Intelligence.
The firm, which focuses on economic competition and corporate finance, states that together, the two companies would represent around 73% of the air traffic in the country. Should Aeroméxico be factored in, the trio of airlines would dominate close to 95% of the market.
The assessment of the risks linked to this integration indicates that such concentration might provide the new entity an enhanced capacity to increase fares. Especially on pathways where travelers have limited options.
Same business model
A key risk noted by Antitrust Intelligence is the potential loss of a direct rival in the budget segment. At present, Volaris and Viva Aerobus utilize the same business model and vie for travelers looking for affordable prices.
A merger would remove this direct competition, possibly lessening the need to uphold competitive pricing. The analysis suggests that this risk would be most evident on routes with few other airlines present.
Moreover, although network optimization may enhance flight load factors and lower expenses. It could also result in the removal of less profitable routes or a decrease in flight frequencies. This may lead to monopolies or duopolies on specific routes, restricting transportation choices for travelers.
The assessment also warns that possible corrective actions—like the sale of routes or airport slots—would not, on their own, ensure that a different airline could mirror the cost structure, pricing levels, and competitive motivations of an ultra-low-cost carrier.
The report highlights financial challenges and liquidity requirements at both firms, but it does not designate them as bankrupt. Volaris experienced losses of $103.8 million in 2025 and $127 million in the second quarter of 2026. Whereas Viva Aerobus reported losses of $133 million in the initial six months of 2026.
The consultancy observed that a possible merger might aid in lowering expenses, enhancing balance sheets, and increasing access to funding. Nonetheless, it cautions that these identical goals might also enhance the motivation to increase prices or pursue extra income in areas with restricted competition.
