Experts do not believe China will use Mexico as a conduit for exports to the US

China is not transshipping its exports to the United States through Mexico, as Mexico has claimed since 2018. When the trade war between the nations led by Donald Trump and Xi Jinping began.

“Recent studies refute the notion that China is transshipping imports to the United States through Mexico. A situation that will likely be one of the many issues addressed in the (USMCA review) talks.” According to the Mexico–Economic Compass report prepared by Grupo Financiero Banorte.

In the context of the USMCA review, there have been claims that the increase in shipments of Mexican goods to the United States is partly due to the transshipment of Chinese goods. According to the analysis conducted by the banking institution.

From that point on, China began to lose market share in U.S. imports, while Mexico gained ground and became the U.S. economy’s leading trading partner, said Alejandro Padilla Santana. Deputy general director of Economic and Financial Analysis at Grupo Financiero Banorte.

“In 2018, the United States purchased more than 20 percent of its exports from China. While it sourced more than 11 percent of its goods from Mexico. Everything changed by 2026, when the United States purchased 16.6 percent of its goods from Mexico and only 7.9 percent from China,” noted the financial institution’s economist.

Once the agreement takes effect on July 1, 2020, the parties must evaluate the treaty’s performance every six years and determine their individual positions on its continuation.

An analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank found that the percentage of Chinese goods entering the country through a triangulation scheme is minimal. As they account for only 1 percent of total shipments from Mexico to the United States.